Time to choose what to bet on for England's first game against the sceptic tanks. For this I will turning to the mystic and deeply credible discipline of astrology - it never did Peter Sellers any harm, did it?
For my astral guide I have decided upon that unequalled seer of the modern age, yes, The Sun's very own Mystic Meg. I'm a selfish, moody Scorpio, the type Raymond Domenech doesn't like, so let's see what advice Meg has for me...
“The most passionate moon of your year promises a loved-up weekend - even if you are not expecting it.”
OK Meg, not very helpful – but maybe something to look forward to this evening.
“If you're single another Scorpio could be perfect for you.”
Right, I'm definitely single – could Meg be hinting that a scorpio in the England team is worth betting on? Lets see... Joe Cole, Wayne Rooney, Shaun Wright-Phillips and the injured Rio Ferdinand are all Scorpio, but its not very specific is it?
“At home you can soothe moods and plans for a family to work together are worth checking.”
Fortunately the Neville brothers are not involved in this squad.
“Luck is hot for H names.”
That's got to be it! Totally conclusive: Heskey to score first, lets put a few quid on that. Let's hope he actually starts eh?
Usually during international football tournaments I have a punt at trying the life of a carefree gambler, this generally goes very badly, possibly because I am a poor judge of sporting form, but more probably because I am completely cursed.
So this time round I have decided, like luke skywalker in the death star trench, to remove my conscious self from the equation. I will embrace the chaotic nature of the universe and use various random, spiritual and possibly illegal methods to decide what to spend my world cup kitty of fifty quid on.
To complete the experiment I have also introduced a control group, representing logic and order, in the shape of a man called Gary. Gary is ideal for this as he is an enthusiastic gambler and also the luckiest person I know. If he dropped a piece of toast, it would not only land butter side up, but he would also spot a ten pound note under the table when he was bending down to pick it up.
We are both starting on 50 quid and will detail the bets we make and how we arrived at these conclusions as the tournament moves on over the next month. There is a spreadsheet here where you can keep up to date on how we are getting on.
First up, who is going to win the world cup and who is going to win the golden boot:
Gary gave it some thought and e-mailed me the following:
"My team to win the World Cup after much thought is Holland. I like the look of the group they are in which they should win with ease, it gives them a chance to rest players in the third game and even try out formations for future matches. If they win their group they play the runners of of group which will be Paraguay or Slovakia, again this should be an easy game and then its the quarter finals and a lottery and have as good a chance as anybody. They will probably have Brazil in the Quarters but I don't fancy them this year, too many European players and ageing centre halves for me. They also choke in big games! - £2 win at 9-1
Top goal scorer is easy for me, Van Persie!! Had the whole of the year off injured, so raring to go. Has scored some great goals in the warm up games and is simply a class act. He should score enough in the group games to win the golden boot and give Wenger a headache as Real Madrid and Barca will coming knocking after the competition. - £2 win at 11-1
I have also had a 25p bet of Nikola Zigic from Serbia to be the top goal scorer, the team have an easy group in my mind where goals will be scored and if things go there way the quarter final is also winnable. At 100-1 its worth a go and with the quarters onwards being real cagey affairs, the golden boot is often won early on. Oh and he has also just signed for Birmingham CIty, although that has nothing to do with this choice:)"
I on the other hand re-called the novel The Dice Man by Luke Rhinehart and acted according, The dice decided that Engalnd are going to win the world cup and that Brazil's Luis Fabiano will score the most goals - here is a shonky video just to prove I didn't cheat:
To be honest, “Diary” is pushing it a bit - this is the before and after tale of Kate going to “bust” some “moves” at the local dance class - Can you guess how well it went?
So far the whole gambling thing has been going reasonably well, I've won now and again and even seem to be a few quid up.
Its all a bit dull though really so to liven things up I am going to use different techniques to guess the results of the knockout rounds. To this end I have procured an 18-month old child, lets call her "Maya" - I am hoping that this little girl is going to make me rich beyond my wildest dreams Mwa haaa haaa haaaa etc.
As she wouldn't stop crying about something or other yesterday I couldn't get a result out of her for the Germany-Portugal game. However now I've turned the music down and slipped her a couple of gins she has picked out the following treble for the other quarter finals:
Turkey to beat Croatia (Hmmm, I know she isn't 2 yet but even so this seems naive)
Holland to beat Russia
Italy to beat Spain
In Ladbrokes they asked what the gurgling and crying noises were coming out of my bag, I explained it away as a new trend in executive ringtones and bunged £5 on the whole lot coming in. It will be £97 if they all come in, so pints/rusks all round, or I'm going to trade the kid in for a pack of Tarot cards.
Cursing my luck at not sticking a few quid on David Villa for top scorer before he took the piss out of Russia, I stumbled into Betfred this afternoon to continue what you would have to describe as a fiscal downward spiral.
My aimless guesswork led to me sticking:
- a quid on not-quite-good-enough-to-play-for-Brazil-but-still-not-bad Deco for the opening goal at 16/1.
- another quid on the Czechs to be leading at half-time but Portugal to eventually win, because the odds were high.
- 2 pounds on Nihat to open the scoring for Turkey against the Swiss, the logic being that he appeared to be the lone striker in their last game.
- a quid on Turkey and Switzerland to draw - because they both look boring as fuck so far, odds are 11/2.
Amazingly Deco managed to scramble one home at the start of the first game, a moment that caused ne to exclaim "FUCKING YES! GET IN! SIXTEEN QUID!" while still sat at my desk in the office and supposed to be doing some work.
Now lounging on the sofa and watching the swimming gala masquerading as the second match this evening I have already missed out on the NIhat bet due to some terrible goalkeeping and an assist from a puddle allowing the swiss to get in front. Having dried up a bit the Turks have started to play a bit and OH YES just pulled level.
What I want now is thirty five minute of dull lifeless midfield drudgery. but its more likely to be a seven goal, four sendings-off thriller. It will all be updated here, either way.
This weekend has been a particularly difficult one, well it might have been. I got so drunk on Friday night that I can't remember very much at all - although I am informed that a cocktail known as "The Stepfather" played some sort of role.
Saturday was therefore mostly spent in bed with severe hangover anxiety and the dreadful knowledge that virtually everyone I know was smugly stretching their hamstrings in order to do the Two Castles run. I ran twice to the toilet, but I'm not sure that there is much of a comparison.
Luckily sporting redemption was at hand in the form of the revived paper-jam gambling challenge. Two years ago I completely failed to win a single bet during the course of the world cup - a feat described by some observers as "Statistically improbable" and by others as "Proof that you are the unluckiest person that I have ever fucking met".
Anyway, with the European championships kicking off this weekend I rapidly allocated myself £50 to speculate on the next 19 days of footy in an attempt to either redress the balance after last time or get into the Guinness book of records as the most inept gambler of all time.
Kicking things off was a double on the Czech Republic and Turkey to win their opening fixtures, while I also backed Turkish Striker Tuncay to begin the scoring against Portugal.
The Czechs did their part albeit due to an unconvincing sliced-shinned effort that (former division 2 golden boot winner) Mark Bright hilariously described as "A good finish".
Unfortunately Turkey didn't really set the world on fire against Portugal, aside from the surprisingly accomplished Colin Kazim-Richards, their man of the match was probably the crossbar.
Oh well, three quid down and forty-seven to go. On the plus side Malc's ancient herbal hangover cure of pizza, lager and jazz cigarettes did sort my hangover out.
I've set up an exciting Google spreadsheet to record my fiscal downfall over the next few weeks, you can find it at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=psx3zVzHb7nEzr43-g5QbUA&hl=en - I will sort out some sort of graph when I have lost some more money and the visual impact will be greater.
Somehow we were able to secure an amazingly exclusive interview with new Coventry City supremo Joe Elliott following hs recent appointment to the CCFC hotseat.
Stumbled upon this earlier on Glumbert and was both bemused and amused. The decisive Real Madrid game last week gets the most over excited commentary I've ever heard from a taciturn American and an insane Geordie, who you know just has to be related to Sid Waddell.
Key quote "Braver than a matador in high heels in a pink tutu".
