Usually during international football tournaments I have a punt at trying the life of a carefree gambler, this generally goes very badly, possibly because I am a poor judge of sporting form, but more probably because I am completely cursed.
So this time round I have decided, like luke skywalker in the death star trench, to remove my conscious self from the equation. I will embrace the chaotic nature of the universe and use various random, spiritual and possibly illegal methods to decide what to spend my world cup kitty of fifty quid on.
To complete the experiment I have also introduced a control group, representing logic and order, in the shape of a man called Gary. Gary is ideal for this as he is an enthusiastic gambler and also the luckiest person I know. If he dropped a piece of toast, it would not only land butter side up, but he would also spot a ten pound note under the table when he was bending down to pick it up.
We are both starting on 50 quid and will detail the bets we make and how we arrived at these conclusions as the tournament moves on over the next month. There is a spreadsheet here where you can keep up to date on how we are getting on.
First up, who is going to win the world cup and who is going to win the golden boot:
Gary gave it some thought and e-mailed me the following:
"My team to win the World Cup after much thought is Holland. I like the look of the group they are in which they should win with ease, it gives them a chance to rest players in the third game and even try out formations for future matches. If they win their group they play the runners of of group which will be Paraguay or Slovakia, again this should be an easy game and then its the quarter finals and a lottery and have as good a chance as anybody. They will probably have Brazil in the Quarters but I don't fancy them this year, too many European players and ageing centre halves for me. They also choke in big games! - £2 win at 9-1
Top goal scorer is easy for me, Van Persie!! Had the whole of the year off injured, so raring to go. Has scored some great goals in the warm up games and is simply a class act. He should score enough in the group games to win the golden boot and give Wenger a headache as Real Madrid and Barca will coming knocking after the competition. - £2 win at 11-1
I have also had a 25p bet of Nikola Zigic from Serbia to be the top goal scorer, the team have an easy group in my mind where goals will be scored and if things go there way the quarter final is also winnable. At 100-1 its worth a go and with the quarters onwards being real cagey affairs, the golden boot is often won early on. Oh and he has also just signed for Birmingham CIty, although that has nothing to do with this choice:)"
I on the other hand re-called the novel The Dice Man by Luke Rhinehart and acted according, The dice decided that Engalnd are going to win the world cup and that Brazil's Luis Fabiano will score the most goals - here is a shonky video just to prove I didn't cheat:
using dice to choose world cup winners and golden boot from Jim Morton on Vimeo.